Mexico captured 24% of US import market that China lost between 2018-2024

China’s nonaccomplishment is Mexico’s gain.

Between 2018 and 2024, the worth of China’s exports to the United States declined by 18.5%, falling from US $538.5 cardinal successful the erstwhile twelvemonth to $438.95 cardinal successful the second year. China’s stock of the U.S. marketplace for imports declined importantly arsenic a result.

According to Mexico’s Finance Ministry (SHCP), Mexico captured 24% of the U.S. marketplace for imports that China mislaid successful the 2018-2024 period.

The fig is included successful the SHCP’s 2026 fund proposal, a 93-page papers that was submitted to Congress earlier this month.

U.S. protectionism against Chinese goods helped Mexico to summation its stock of the United States’ marketplace for imports successful caller years, allowing it to overtake the East Asian economical powerhouse arsenic the apical exporter to the world’s largest system successful 2023 and support the enviable presumption ever since.

Mexico’s stock of the U.S. marketplace for imports accrued 2 percent points betwixt 2018 and 2024 to scope 15.5% portion China’s stock declined 7.8 percent points to 13.4%.

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The SHCP believes that Mexico present has an adjacent greater accidental to seizure a bigger stock of the U.S. marketplace for imports, fixed that the Trump medication has precocious accrued tariffs connected imports from China, a state known colloquially arsenic “the world’s factory.”

Mexico’s commercialized vantage widens 

According to the SHCP, the United States’ “effective tariff rate” connected imports from China betwixt 2018 and 2024 was 6.6 percent points higher than its effectual tariff complaint connected imports from Mexico, which, on with the U.S. and Canada, is enactment to the USMCA escaped commercialized pact.

The quality successful the effectual tariff rates “allowed Mexico to summation astir 24% of the participation” successful the U.S. marketplace for imports that China lost, the ministry said.

The SHCP said that Mexico present has a “comparative advantage” of 35.6 percent points implicit China successful presumption of the effectual tariff rates applicable to the 2 countries’ exports to the United States.

“The existent magnitude [of the difference] opens up an adjacent greater accidental to grow [Mexico’s] exports, accumulation and employment successful the manufacturing sector,” the ministry said.

Mexico vs. China, and the world

“Despite a much uncertain planetary situation owed to changes successful commercialized policy,” Mexico “maintains 1 of the astir favorable positions successful planetary commercialized and, successful particular, with its main North American partners.”

So reads an inset successful the SHCP’s 2026 fund proposal, including successful the papers nether the rubric “Resilience of Mexico’s outer assemblage successful the look of a caller commercialized environment.”

According to Mexico’s Finance Ministry, led by Edgar Amador, 81% of Mexico’s exports to the United States didn’t look tariffs successful July 2025. (Moisés Pablo/Cuartoscuro)

The Finance Ministry said that Mexico’s vantage is “explained by 4 factors”:

• A little tariff complaint to entree the U.S. marketplace compared to competitors.
• “Preferential access” to the U.S. marketplace acknowledgment to the USMCA. (Most Mexican goods that comply with the USMCA tin participate the U.S. tariff-free).
• The “deep integration” of Mexico’s exports successful “regional worth chains.” (Mexico and the U.S. are said to beryllium portion of a “co-production system”).
• The “flexibility of the speech complaint regime, which allows orderly adjustments and preserves competitiveness.”

The SHCP said that the United States’ effectual tariff complaint for imports from Mexico was 4.7% successful July. It described the complaint arsenic “one of the lowest” among the United States’ commercialized partners.

The ministry said that the United States’ “global average” tariff complaint was 9.7%. For the European Union, it was a somewhat little 9.1%, portion for China it was a overmuch higher 40.4%, the SHCP said.

It highlighted that 81% of Mexico’s exports to the United States didn’t look tariffs successful July, chiefly acknowledgment to the UMSCA, which superseded NAFTA successful 2020 and is scheduled for reappraisal successful 2026.

The SHCP besides noted that the United States’ effectual tariff complaint connected imports from Mexico has “only increased” 4.5 percent points successful 2025 compared to past year, whereas the U.S. hiked duties connected Chinese goods by 29.5 percent points, and 7.4 percent points, connected average, connected products from countries astir the world.

Mexico’s commercialized vantage implicit different countries “doesn’t beryllium connected circumstances” that are taxable to alteration (oftentimes owed to the evident whims of the U.S. president), but depends alternatively connected an “institutional framework” — the USMCA — “that limits vulnerability to tariff increases,” the ministry said.

Mexico’s worsened yet inactive favorable commercialized concern with the U.S. — which Mexican officials, including President Claudia Shienbaum and Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, person emphasized connected innumerable occasions — should assistance the state to proceed to pull overseas concern successful the years ahead. Indeed, overseas nonstop concern successful Mexico deed a grounds precocious successful the archetypal fractional of the year.

SHCP highlights value of USMCA review 

The Finance Ministry said that the 2026 USMCA reappraisal “will beryllium decisive to consolidate a much predictable model for determination commercialized and to springiness greater certainty to companies, adjacent successful the lawsuit of accommodation to rules of entree and origin.”

“Clarity successful these criteria volition beryllium cardinal to strengthening concern plans and expanding accumulation chains with greater nationalist content,” the SHCP said.

The Mexican authorities is determined to execute adjacent much favorable conditions for Mexico-based companies that export to the United States. As things stand, U.S. tariffs use to a scope of Mexican products, including vehicles, aluminum, alloy and goods that don’t conscionable USMCA rules.

The government’s program to enforce higher tariffs connected a wide scope of goods from China and different countries with which Mexico doesn’t person commercialized agreements is wide seen arsenic an effort to appease the U.S. up of the USMCA review, portion besides protecting Mexican manufacture and spurring accrued home accumulation — cardinal objectives of the Plan México economical initiative.

Sheinbaum is assured that the USMCA volition endure beyond the 2026 review, and often asserts that the mode successful which North America tin beryllium astir competitory globally is arsenic a agreed commercialized bloc and accumulation hub.

Trump — who has both questioned whether the USMCA is inactive needed and indicated that he wants to “renegotiate” the statement alternatively than conscionable reappraisal it — is the X origin successful the upcoming review, a president who has reshaped planetary commercialized successful 2025, and shown helium is prepared to interruption the existing North American commercialized model to exert unit connected some Mexico and Canada.

By Mexico News Daily main unit writer Peter Davies ([email protected])