OECD follows the IMF in lifting Mexico’s economic growth outlook for 2025

Noting that the planetary system has demonstrated astonishing resilience, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 0.4% to 0.8% for 2025.

The OECD besides projected a 1.3% summation successful the Mexican system successful 2026, an betterment compared to that body’s erstwhile forecast of 1.1%.The affirmative quality comes conscionable days aft the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its Mexico GDP forecast to 1.0% this twelvemonth — up from -0.3% successful April — portion projecting 1.5% maturation successful 2026.

In upgrading Mexico’s GDP outlook for the remainder of the year, the OECD noted that U.S. tariffs haven’t yet had their afloat effect. (File Photo)

Issued connected Tuesday, the “OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2025” cited a stronger-than-expected show successful Mexico’s exports contempt a volatile planetary commercialized environment. 

However, the enactment did enactment that “the afloat effects of tariff increases person not yet been felt, though they are becoming progressively evident successful spending decisions, labour markets and user prices” astir the world.

As for ostentation successful Mexico, the OECD bumped up its forecast for this twelvemonth to 4.2% (its erstwhile estimation was 3.4%), but foresees improved containment successful 2026, projecting ostentation of 3.6%. This reflects persistent outgo pressures that should gradually mean successful the coming years, it said.

While ostentation remains a challenge, the OECD called for a “vigilant” monetary policy, urging Mexico’s cardinal slope (Banxico) to “react promptly to shifting risks to terms stability.” 

The enactment foresees Banxico continuing its monetary easing argumentation with further complaint cuts successful its effort to mean inflationary pressures. Along with Mexico’s resilient export sector, it said, little involvement rates could supply further enactment to home request successful 2026, complementing the ongoing momentum from trade, paving the mode for much unchangeable growth.

Given the planetary outlook, the OECD urged policymakers to observe fiscal subject to safeguard semipermanent indebtedness sustainability and support country for maneuver to respond to aboriginal crises.

It besides warned of downside risks successful the short-term, citing further tariff hikes and accrued concerns astir fiscal liabilities, including volatile crypto-assets, each of which could airs further fiscal stableness concerns.

The upward inclination is based connected the spot of Mexico’s outer assemblage which the OECD regards arsenic a stabilizing force, contempt the expanding commercialized frictions.

With reports from El Economista, Mexico Business and El País