Opinion: It’s time for Mexico to stop flaring its precious natural gas

Long 1 of the world’s starring lipid producers, Mexico is besides among the apical 9 countries that unneurotic relationship for 75% of planetary methane emissions from state flaring and venting. It is simply a dubious ranking that has not gone unnoticed. Indeed, for years Mexico has signaled its intent to trim methane emissions. There are evident clime and emanation simplification goals but besides important vigor information aspects that are progressively relevant.

Cutting flaring — the signifier of burning disconnected unwanted earthy state astatine lipid and state sites, converting methane that would different flight into the ambiance into c dioxide — done amended attraction and state seizure exertion is wide seen arsenic low-hanging fruit. In 2016, the state endorsed the World Bank’s Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 inaugural and reaffirmed that pledge successful 2025. Then successful 2018, the Peña Nieto medication enacted 1 of the world’s astir ambitious methane regulations successful the lipid and state sector. It mandated leak detection and repair, vapor betterment systems, low-bleed technologies and reduced-emission completions, aiming to chopped assemblage methane emissions by astir 75% by 2025. In its 2022 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations, Mexico committed to lowering its full greenhouse state emissions by 35% by 2030, including a extremity to utilize 98% of methane from lipid and state operations. That’s the bully news.

A state flare burns astatine the apical of a operation astatine Pemex’s Olmeca Refinery successful Dos Bocas, Tabasco. (Gobierno de México)

Despite these stated ambitions, Mexico and its authorities lipid company, Pemex, are not effecting affirmative change. In 2024, the state flared 5.7 cardinal cubic meters (bcm) of earthy gas, up from 5.5 bcm successful 2023. Even much troubling, flaring strength roseate from 7.8 cubic meters per tube successful 2023 to 8.5 cubic meters per tube successful 2024. Aging infrastructure and maturing lipid wells marque state absorption much difficult, but determination are besides signs of elemental neglect — and non-compliance with the nation’s ain goals and objectives. A 2024 Reuters study revealed that Pemex deliberately delayed repairs connected failing instrumentality astatine its Zaap-C level successful the Gulf of Mexico, allowing methane to vent into the ambiance for months. (Venting refers to releasing earthy state straight without combustion.)

This much caller backsliding occurred during the last years of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, which ended successful October 2024. His successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, has presented herself arsenic much climate-focused and has signaled that Pemex volition extremity costly flaring practices.

Energy information successful the Trump era

There is simply a precise compelling geopolitical statement and context. Today Mexico imports astir 70% of its earthy gas, astir wholly from the United States. That dependence looks manageable erstwhile markets are calm and Washington is cooperative, but it becomes a glaring vulnerability successful the look of imaginable governmental and biology shocks. During the 2021 Texas freeze, disruptions successful earthy state proviso near astir 5 cardinal households and businesses successful bluish Mexico without power. The 2nd iteration of a Trump medication has been thing but volatile to nearshore relationships, utilizing tariffs to bully partners to the dialog table. Similarly, renegotiations of the USMCA reappraisal are scheduled for 2026, posing a credible hazard that Trump volition usage those to further leverage America’s resources.

Mexico cannot extremity its dependence connected U.S. state overnight, but capturing and utilizing what is present flared and vented would marque the state much resilient to unforeseen shocks. Every molecule of methane redirected from a flare stack into a pipeline is simply a molecule that does not person to beryllium bargained for crossed the border. It is simply a buffer against upwind emergencies, pipeline authorities and the whims of U.S. electoral cycles.

Pemex denies monolithic methane leak reported successful Gulf of Mexico

For a state with a state-owned lipid institution and an environmentalist president who has promised to reclaim clime leadership, this is an evident measurement toward a much sovereign and unafraid vigor sector. Mexico cannot destruct its reliance connected U.S. state overnight, but by turning its flaring and venting discarded into a usable assets it tin greatly trim vulnerability to outer shocks portion creating tangible home benefits.

What earthy state seizure could look like

For Mexico, the way guardant to positively impacting and importantly reducing flaring and venting is not a mystery. The International Energy Agency estimates that astir 40% of methane emissions from lipid and state operations worldwide could beryllium chopped astatine nary nett cost, since the worth of the captured state exceeds the disbursal of the instrumentality needed. The economics are affirmative and constituent to galore projects with the imaginable for rapidly amortizing investments, particularly with enactment from clime concern oregon greenish enslaved funding.

In practice, modular compressors and flare state betterment systems, already deployed successful dozens of producing countries, could crook wasted earthy state into revenue. Pemex itself projects that reaching zero regular flaring by 2030 volition necessitate implicit US $2 cardinal successful superior outlays. Alone, it’s a important figure, but overmuch smaller adjacent to its yearly fund and what Mexico spends each twelvemonth connected imported U.S. gas.

The imaginable assets summation from capturing earthy state from wasteful systems is not trivial. Mexico’s 5.7 bcm of flared earthy state successful 2024, if captured and treated, could person displaced astir 8.5% of the 66.7 bcm successful pipeline imports Mexico bought from the United States. What is present flared and vented could proviso capable substance to powerfulness millions of Mexican homes oregon to stabilize energy proviso successful southeastern concern regions, wherever shortages person been chronic.

Energy information meets economical security

The benefits of curtailing flaring and venting widen beyond the equilibrium sheet. Mexico has the accidental to slash its greenhouse state footprint, assistance Pemex conscionable its clime commitments arsenic portion of its sustainability plan, and amended the company’s credibility with lenders who are progressively reluctant to concern fossil substance firms. It would besides make jobs successful the work assemblage for installing and operating the needed infrastructure.

And that is earlier accounting for the costs being assumed by Mexican society. Climate-driven disasters specified arsenic hurricanes, heatwaves and droughts are already wreaking havoc crossed the region. At the section level, flaring successful southeast Mexico has besides been linked to a scope of adverse wellness outcomes, imposing incalculable losses successful healthcare spending and prime of beingness for communities surviving successful extraction zones.

With overmuch uncertainty connected the horizon, adjacent a humble 8.5% summation successful earthy state self-sufficiency could beryllium decisive. It could besides service arsenic large home authorities for the Sheinbaum administration, marrying her tendency to beryllium seen arsenic much ambitious connected clime enactment arsenic good arsenic economical information successful the look of the non-stop challenges emanating from the U.S. medication successful Washington.

Jeremy M. Martin is Vice President for Energy and Sustainability astatine the Institute of the Americas, an inter-American nationalist argumentation think-tank located astatine the UC San Diego.

Paul Youngblood is simply a researcher with the Institute of the Americas’ Energy & Sustainability programme and a postgraduate pupil astatine UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy.