International Monetary Fund revises Mexico’s economic forecast upward

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its forecast upward for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) connected Friday to 1.0% maturation for 2025 and 1.5% successful 2026.

Though the caller figures inactive bespeak a wide slowing, they are an betterment over the 0.3% contraction predicted by the IMF successful April and the 1.4% maturation successful 2024.

Helping Mexico’s improved economical prospects is the anticipation that it volition conscionable the 3% extremity for ostentation by the 2nd semester of 2026. (Unsplash)

The IMF warned that the forecast could alteration if further challenges travel up, specified arsenic fiscal consolidation, a contractionary monetary argumentation oregon commercialized tensions with the United States.

The economical outlook of Latin America’s second-largest system had yo-yoed successful caller months, arsenic U.S. President Donald Trump shuffled plans to present tariffs connected a scope of Mexican goods, spurring greater capitalist uncertainty crossed respective sectors. 

Nevertheless, said the IMF, “Mexico’s grounds of precise beardown policies and argumentation frameworks has besides proved to beryllium an important plus arsenic the state navigates the uncertain economical environment.” Growth is expected to accelerate somewhat successful 2026, though the effect of tariffs and commercialized uncertainty volition proceed to beryllium felt.

The bureau said that near-term risks to Mexico’s economical enactment are broadly balanced, and stronger-than-expected request successful the U.S. and a solution to tariff uncertainty helped propulsion the forecast up. 

The IMF besides noted that if Mexico could execute a favorable result successful the coming reappraisal of its commercialized pact with the U.S. and Canada (the USMCA), it could further heighten its economical outlook. 

Mexico captured 24% of US import marketplace that China mislaid betwixt 2018-2024

Headline ostentation has improved, and Mexico is expected to execute the 3% ostentation people acceptable by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) for the 2nd fractional of 2026. 

The Mexican government’s ain economical forecast expects maturation successful 2026 of betwixt 1.8% and 2.8%, with the fund shortage declining somewhat to 4.1%, from 4.3% successful 2025. 

The IMF recommended that Mexico purpose for a fiscal shortage of 2.5% by 2027, arsenic good arsenic follow measures to boost fiscal credibility. The bureau said that stronger fiscal and structural measures would assistance guarantee semipermanent economical stability.

“Further shortage simplification and argumentation measures are needed going guardant to forestall further upward drifts successful nationalist indebtedness and make fiscal abstraction to respond to imaginable shocks,” the IMF said. 

With reports from Sin Embargo and Reuters